1997 U.S. NATIONALS PREDICTIONS
9-08-97
Today I recieved the latest version of the nationals program.
It seems ther were a few changes I did not hear about. Nor.Cal rider
chad Felicio is out and current World Champion Billy Hamil
is in. This changes alot. Rather than re-write the intire
article, I'm just going to update the bottom. That way you can
see just what has changed.
Today with the help of Laurie Oxley, I received the line up
for the 1997 U.S Nationals. In the past I have made my
predictions without error. Well at least for the last 5 years I
have. This year I try again.
The season comes down to this. One night, One chance. If you are
not on your game, your out. Well almost out. In past years each
rider raced all others once. After five rounds the hi-point man
was the winner. Not any more. Things at Costa Mesa are changing.
Now after five rounds the top 4 point getters go in a winner take
all main event. This sure to make turn one the place to watch.
Four riders going for all the marbles. So who should win?
After careful thought, hours upon hours of mind breaking...well
you get the idea, I have narrowed the field. First I eliminated
a few guys that, Although they are great riders, Just never seem
to have a great Nationals. So with all due respect, Goodby Shawn
McConnell, Andy Northrup And Eddie Castro. A few Northern
Cal.riders making the nationals this year also probably won't
win. Again they are good riders but just lack the experience
needed to win at Costa Mesa. So see ya Chad Felicio and Bob
Hicks. There are a few riders with all the talent in the world.
They could be superstars in the future. But for one reason or
another they are not just there yet. Bobby Hedden is just such a
guy. He is awesome at Auburn but still needs work on the Costa
Mesa bull ring. John Aden also is awesome when he is on. But for
what ever reason, He is not always on. He can beat everyone out
there at times. Not this time. Sorry Bobby and John. So that
leaves us with 9 guys with a real shot at the trophy. It will
take a guy with fire in his eyes. A guy with experience and
determination. This could favor a past champion. Infact of the 9
guys left six have won the crown before. Three have one it more
than once. Maybe it will be a first time winner. One that has
never tasted the punch before. Steve Lucero is last years
champion trying to repeat. Last done by Sam Ermolenko. He should
not finish worse than second all night, And even win a race or
two. Brad Oxley should win his first two rounds with little
work. But then it gets tough for Rad Brad. Rounds 3-4-5 are
killer for the past Champion. I pick Mike Faria to finish second
twice and first three times. Bobby Schwartz will do about the
same. Greg Hancock is coming from over the pond to try his luck.
Greg should Finish just out of the hunt. Around ten points.
Louis Kossuth was last years number three man. He could do it
again this year if he can win his first race. Bart Bast is always
a threat to win. He was the runner up for ythis years California
State Championship. Losing in a runoff to Charlie Venegas. Also
coming over the pond is past champion Chris Manchester. We all
remember Manchester dominating the 1992 Nationals. Winning with
a perfect score. I guess I left one guy out. Charlie 'The Edge '
Venegas. He has had the fire, The will, and the ability. He has
only been back in the states for a few weeks but has made his
presents known. I think if Manchester is on his horse nobody will
beat him. All night. I feel the same about Bobby Schwartz. If
you bet against Bobby 10 times you will lose 8 times. However,
this night I think will belong to...
CHARLIE 'THE EDGE' VENEGAS.
UPDATE!! scroll down
FIRST VERSION
Below are the heats with my picks.
1st place = 3pts
2nd place = 2pts
3rd place = 1 pt
4th place = 0 pts
top name starts from the pole
heat 1 heat 2 heat 3 heat 4
___________________________________________________________
Schwartz 3 Felicio o Oxley 3 Faria 3
Kossuth 1 Venegas 3 Hicks 0 Northrup 0
Bast 2 Aden 2 Hedden 2 Hancock 1
Manchester 0 Castro 1 McConnell 1 Lucero 2
heat 5 heat 6 heat 7 heat 8
______________________________________________________________
Lucero 2 Northrup 0 Hicks 0 Manchester 3
Schwartz 3 Oxley 3 Faria 2 Castro 1
felicio 0 Kossuth 2 Venegas 3 McConnell 0
Hedden 1 Aden 1 Bast 1 Hancock 2
heat 9 heat 10 heat 11 heat12
______________________________________________________________
Aden 1 McConnell 1 Castro 2 Lucero 3
Hancock 3 Felicio 0 Hedden 1 Manchester 1
Schwartz 2 Faria 3 Bast 3 Oxley 0
Hicks 0 Kosuth 2 Northrup 0 Venegas 2
heat 13 heat 14 heat 15 heat 16
_______________________________________________________________
Venegas 3 Kossuth 3 Hancock 3 Hedden 0
McConnell 1 Lucero 2 Bast 2 Aden 1
Northrup 0 Castro 1 Oxley 1 Manchester 2
Schwartz 2 Hicks 0 Felicio 0 Faria 3
heat 17 heat 18 heat 19 heat 20
______________________________________________________________
Schwartz 3 Hedden 0 Bast 3 Felicio 1
Castro 0 Kossuth 2 McConnell 1 Northrup 3
Faria 2 Venegas 3 Lucero 2 Hicks 0
Oxley 1 Hancock 1 Aden 0 Manchester 2
top 4 in points to A main, Winner take all
A main event
1st Venegas
2nd Schwartz
3rd Faria
4th Lucero
new version
heat 1 heat 2 heat 3 heat 4
___________________________________________________________
Schwartz 3 Hamil 3 Oxley 3 Faria 3
Kossuth 1 Venegas 2 Hicks 0 Northrup 0
Bast 2 Aden 1 Hedden 2 Hancock 1
Manchester 0 Castro 0 McConnell 1 Lucero 2
heat 5 heat 6 heat 7 heat 8
______________________________________________________________
Lucero 2 Northrup 0 Hicks 0 Manchester 3
Schwartz 1 Oxley 3 Faria 2 Castro 1
Hamil 3 Kossuth 2 Venegas 3 McConnell 0
Hedden 0 Aden 1 Bast 1 Hancock 2
heat 9 heat 10 heat 11 heat12
______________________________________________________________
Aden 1 McConnell 0 Castro 2 Lucero 3
Hancock 3 Hamil 2 Hedden 1 Manchester 1
Schwartz 2 Faria 3 Bast 3 Oxley 0
Hicks 0 Kosuth 1 Northrup 0 Venegas 2
heat 13 heat 14 heat 15 heat 16
_______________________________________________________________
Venegas 3 Kossuth 3 Hancock 3 Hedden 0
McConnell 1 Lucero 2 Bast 1 Aden 1
Northrup 0 Castro 1 Oxley 0 Manchester 2
Schwartz 2 Hicks 0 Hamil 2 Faria 3
heat 17 heat 18 heat 19 heat 20
______________________________________________________________
Schwartz 3 Hedden 0 Bast 3 Hamil 3
Castro 0 Kossuth 2 McConnell 1 Northrup 1
Faria 2 Venegas 3 Lucero 2 Hicks 0
Oxley 1 Hancock 1 Aden 0 Manchester 2
top 4 in points to A main, Winner take all
A main event
Hamil
Venegas
Faria
Schwartz
I my first pick, I had Venegas coming from the pole.
I am assuming Hi-point man picks his starting position first.
Now Hamil comes from the pole. Venegas will not win from the
number two spot. On the other hand Hamil will not win from the
pole. He has spent a long time on the big tracks. So what will
happen you ask? They will line up just as I have shown above.
Hamil and Venegas will fight for the inside grove. A hole will
open up and Faria will ride right by them. The new Champion will
be Mike faria. Hamil will be second, Schwartz third and poor
Charlie will finish a frustrated fourth.
Or Not...
return to HOME page